Bitcoin On-Chain Signal Flips Bullish as Iran Deal Boosts Sentiment

The crypto market is showing signs of renewed strength as a key on-chain metric flashes bullish for the first time in over a year, coinciding with a major geopolitical development. Bitcoin's network activity index has crossed above its 365-day moving average, a threshold that CryptoQuant research classifies as the start of a bull phase. This signal, which preceded significant price advances in 2024 and 2025, comes as the Iran peace deal eases geopolitical tensions, removing a risk premium that had been suppressing risk appetite across digital assets.

On-Chain Activity Enters Bull Phase

According to CryptoQuant, the network activity index—a composite of transaction count, active addresses, and block utilization—broke above its 365-day average for the first time since December 2024. Daily Bitcoin transactions have exceeded 800,000 in 2026, more than doubling from 2025 lows, while the index itself jumped from roughly 3,320 to approximately 3,600. CryptoQuant describes the trend as structural rather than transient, with average transactions per block running near record levels for several consecutive weeks.

Historically, this signal has marked the transition into sustained bull-phase behavior. It happened in late 2024 and again briefly in April 2025, both times preceding upward price moves. Long-term holder accumulation data reinforces the signal, suggesting that HODL-oriented cohorts are adding to positions rather than distributing.

Geopolitical Tailwind from Iran Deal

The timing of the on-chain signal carries significant macro weight. Partial de-escalation from the Iran peace deal has removed some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been suppressing risk appetite across crypto markets. Bitcoin is currently holding just above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $62,000, a level that has historically functioned as long-cycle support. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $62,500, down 2.5% over 24 hours, but the combination of a bull-phase network signal and a macro tailwind has analysts questioning whether a bottom is in place.

ChatGPT's latest Bitcoin price prediction, which cites easing geopolitical tensions following the Iran conflict as one of five tailwinds, sees the next major bull phase beginning around November 2026. The AI model's base case targets $120,000 to $180,000 by year-end, with an upside scenario of $200,000 if ETF inflows accelerate and risk appetite returns. Even the bear case—which factors in regulatory delays or persistent inflation—still expects Bitcoin to trade in the $70,000 to $90,000 range, above current levels.

Altcoins Show Mixed Signals

While Bitcoin leads the recovery, altcoins present a more fragmented picture. Cardano (ADA) continues to struggle, trading near $0.16—down roughly 32% over the past 30 days and at levels last seen in 2020. Founder Charles Hoskinson has proposed a governance overhaul including a moderated Discord, DRep voting bloc, and new constitution, but the market has yet to respond positively. Meanwhile, Solana is achieving institutional credibility milestones, reshaping Layer 1 competitive positioning and adding pressure on Cardano.

Ethereum and XRP remain range-bound, pressing against resistance bands that have held for weeks. The broader market awaits a catalyst to break out of consolidation, and the Iran deal combined with the on-chain signal may provide the necessary spark.

Key Takeaways

1. Bitcoin's network activity index crossed above its 365-day moving average, signaling a bull phase for the first time since December 2024.
2. The Iran peace deal removes geopolitical risk premium, supporting BTC near the 200-week SMA at $62,000.
3. ChatGPT predicts a bull phase starting November 2026, targeting $120,000–$180,000, with upside to $200,000.
4. Cardano struggles at $0.16 amid governance overhaul, while Solana gains institutional ground.
5. Ethereum and XRP remain range-bound, awaiting a breakout catalyst.

Sources: CryptoQuant On-Chain Signal, ChatGPT Bitcoin Prediction, Cardano Governance Overhaul